We’re only about four months into an ongoing memory crisis across the globe, but we’re already seeing some massive consequences spawning from this AI-driven demand. As expected, those very same consequences are coming for the smartphone market, with one firm expecting 160 million fewer sales compared to 2025.
Today’s report comes from the IDC (via Bloomberg), which has downgraded its mobile shipment estimates for 2026 year-over-year by 13 percent. That wouldn’t just mark the first year-over-year decline since 2023, it would land right alongside the pandemic era as one of the worst dips in smartphone sales in the past 20 years. This follows two consecutive years of global growth in what was largely seen as a rebound from earlier this decade, and if you’re sticking with IDC’s thinking, this memory crisis could turn out to be significantly worse for the market than COVID.
IDC Senior Research Director Nabila Popal told Bloomberg that the lack of available RAM makes “the tariffs and pandemic crisis seem like a joke,” before stating that this crisis will cause a “seismic shift” in the market. The firm doesn’t expect component availability or pricing to improve prior to the middle of 2027, specifically using phrasing like “stabilize” over “return to normal.” But considering the way some of the memory and storage manufacturers have been speaking about their current output over the past few weeks, I wouldn’t be surprised to see that shortage extended into 2028.
Today’s IDC report also reiterates what we’ve heard from other analyst outlets: flagships and other premium devices won’t see as much of an impact as cheaper devices, where a lack of headroom for more expensive components will either push those costs onto the consumer or dry up availability altogether. “The days of cheap smartphones are gone,” Popal told Bloomberg near the end of its report, before suggesting that the sub-$100 category of devices in particular is potentially set to go extinct.
Still, if this week’s Galaxy S26 announcement is any indication to go by, higher prices are already set to hit consumers. The Galaxy S26 and S26+ both went up by $100 compared to their nearly-identical predecessors, despite Samsung having reportedly scrapped more impressive overhauls to better compete with the $800 iPhone 17. Meanwhile, outside the world of smartphones, building a computer has become virtually impossible, products like the Steam Deck are largely sold out, and console makers like Sony are reportedly delaying their plans for future hardware. Let’s hope the AI revolution is worth it.
FTC: We use income earning auto affiliate links. More.
Comments