Google Pixel is the exception as Android brands face a rough 2026 with more iPhone switchers

Ben Schoon | Mar 23 2026 - 11:05 am PT

2026 and the ongoing RAM/storage crisis continues to put out a rough outlook for the year ahead, and Android brands are bearing the brunt of that with a new forecast revealing that Android shipments could drop as much as 15% this year to the iPhone’s 2%, but there is a bit of hope for Google Pixel.

New research from Morgan Stanley brings out a few key points regarding the 2026 smartphone market which, as has been made clear, is in for a rough year, as past reports have brought out.

The RAM shortage is causing a smartphone ‘crisis like no other,’ market could shrink 13%

The Morgan Stanley note, as shared by Investing.com, forecasts that Android shipments will drop by as much as 15% year-over-year, while iPhone shipments may only drop by around 2%. That’s a huge disparity, with Apple being “the only major global smartphone vendor expected to gain share in 2026.” Android brands, the report brings out, face “unprecedented memory cost inflation” which will “significantly dampen smartphone market demand” due to higher prices.

Elsewhere in the note, as shared by Creative Strategies analyst Max Weinbach, Apple is said to have a “5-year high” for switching rate, with Google Pixel being the only other notable exception as “all other major smartphone brands” are seeing “negative net switching rates.”

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In other words, outside of customers upgrading within their respective ecosystems, Google Pixel and the iPhone are the only brands gaining new users. As Weinbach points out, though, Apple’s rate means a lot more due to scale, which is why Morgan Stanley says that “Apple is positioned to be the clearest market share beneficiary in 2026, while Android vendors are likely to lose share.”

This comes as Apple has already been taking over Samsung’s crown as the world’s largest smartphone brand.

A figure from the Morgan Stanley research shows that Apple’s switching rate jumped from 6% to 11% year-over-year, the 2026 figure being a forecast, while Google Pixel’s rate is slowing down from 33% in 2025 to 28% in 2026.

Needless to say, things are looking increasingly bleak for the year ahead for Android, and the impacts are sure to be felt more and more over the coming months.