Influential analyst predicts a hit for Moto X, a miss for new Nexus 7

KGI’s Mingchi Kuo, an analyst with a good predictive track-record, has forecast that the Moto X will do substantially better than forecast, while the new 1080P Nexus 7 will do significantly worse.

According to our survey, 2013F shipments of Moto X, to be announced August 1, should reach 5.5mn units, up 57% from the previous forecast of 3.5mn units, including 1.5mn units in 3Q13 and 4.0mn units in 4Q13.

Kuo cited a combination of supply chain sources, the positive response from U.S. operators and Google’s planned megaspend of half a billion dollars on marketing the handset as key factors for the boost in expected numbers …

For the new Nexus 7, Kuo said:

Following our survey of the tablet industry, we estimate shipments of second-generation Nexus 7, co-developed by Google (US) and Asustek (2357 TT, NT$275, N), will be only 3.5-4.0mn units in 2013, some 30-40% lower than market consensus of 5.0-7.0mn units.

Factors here, he said, were the increasingly competitive tablet market (with even the iPad suffering), and a relatively high price for what he viewed as a modest boost in specs. In particular, he thinks that Asustek, manufacturer of the Nexus 7, will be aiming to saturate the market via aggressive selling of its lower-cost tablets.